What is ICM?
Why tournament chips are not money, and why that difference turns very good hands into folds.
A thought experiment. Three players left in a tournament, prizes of $50, $30 and $20, everybody with exactly the same chips. If you now double your stack by winning a coin flip against an opponent, you have two thirds of all the chips. But two thirds of the prize money? No: at most you have made the 50 safer, while the loser has lost everything. Winning chips gained less than losing chips would have cost. That is the whole heart of ICM.
From chips to money
The Independent Chip Model works out what every stack is worth in expected prize money, based on everybody's chance of every finishing place. The result is the same lesson every time in different clothes: your first chips are your most expensive, because losing that last chip means nothing at all. That is why the threshold for risking your tournament life rises as the prize money comes closer.
How large that effect gets you can see in the worked example Folding AKs on the bubble?: a hand that wins plenty of chips and still loses money. And if you want to work through your own situations: the free ICM calculator does the mathematics per stack.
The three practical consequences
Around pay jumps you call tighter. Borderline cases that were fine far from the money become folds as soon as going out costs money directly.
A big stack may push. Anyone with nobody to fear profits from everybody who does have to survive: raising gets cheaper the tighter the others have to play.
Winning is not the mirror image of losing. The question is never only "am I ahead", but "what does it cost me in prize money if this goes wrong". Where that fits in the full tournament picture you can read in the tournament strategy for beginners.
frequently asked questions
ICM questions.
What is ICM in one sentence? +
The Independent Chip Model: the method that converts tournament chips into their real value in prize money, so you can make decisions on money instead of on chips.
Why are chips not simply worth money? +
Because in a tournament you cannot cash out: whoever wins everything does not have all the prize money, and whoever is out has nothing. Your first chips are therefore worth more than your last, and doubling gains less than halving costs.
When does ICM matter most? +
Around the bubble and at the final table, anywhere an elimination directly changes the prize money. Far from the money you play on chip value; the closer to a pay jump, the tighter your borderline cases become.
Do I need to be able to do the ICM calculation myself? +
No, nobody does that at the table. What you train are the conclusions: calling tighter around pay jumps, applying pressure with a big stack, and accepting that a chip winning call is sometimes a money losing one. The calculator does the mathematics.
work it out
What is your stack really worth?
Work your situation through with the free ICM calculator, or train ICM decisions daily with Pokiq's tournament training.