learn · flop
The flop.
Three shared cards arrive at once, and most players then ask the wrong question. Not: did I hit something. But: whose hands does this board fit better, mine or his. That answer decides whether you bet, how large, and how often.
whose board is this
You raised preflop, so your hands hold more aces, kings and pairs than the hands of the player who called. If a flop like falls, that board belongs to you and not to him: he rarely has an ace, because with a good ace he would have raised himself.
Turn it around and it still holds. If falls, he has far more hands for it than you do, because you folded most low cards before the flop. Betting is therefore not a reflex but a consequence of this question, and which hands you can hold here was already fixed by what you opened preflop. That first bet by the preflop raiser is called a c-bet.
four kinds of board
Dry
Three suits, far apart, almost nothing in the making
Little can still change, and the king fits the hands you raised with better than it fits his. Bet often, but small: a third of the pot is enough.
Wet
Cards next to each other, two of one suit
All sorts of hands are on their way to a straight or a flush. Bet large with your strong hands and with what can still grow, and check the rest instead of making a habit of it.
Paired
Two of the same rank on the table
Very few hands genuinely connect with this board, so usually nobody has anything. A small bet does a lot of work here.
Low and connected
Low cards locked together
This board fits the hands of the player who called better than those of the player who raised. Check here more often than you are used to.
Your bet size follows the kind of board, not your hand. Small on a dry board, large on a wet one, and in both cases the same size for your strong hands as for your bluffs. Bet large only when you have something and your opponent reads you inside half an hour.
what can still arrive
If your hand is unfinished but can still be completed, the cards that finish it are your outs. A hand that needs two more cards rather than one is a backdoor draw and is worth much less. The figures below apply from the flop, and they are exact rather than estimated.
| What you have | Chance through the river | Chance on one card |
|---|---|---|
| Four to a flush, nine cards help | 34.97 percent | 19.57 percent |
| Straight open at both ends, eight cards help | 31.45 percent | 17.39 percent |
| Straight with a gap, four cards help | 16.47 percent | 8.70 percent |
You do not work that out at the table. You count your outs and multiply by four when two cards are still to come, or by two when one is: that is the rule of 2 and 4. With nine outs it gives 36 percent against an actual 34.97 percent, and that gap almost never changes your decision. The free poker odds calculator gives the exact figure for any board.
Then you set that chance against what it costs. If someone bets 50 into a pot of 100, you pay 50 to win 200 and you need 25 percent; with nearly 35 percent, calling is clearly right. That comparison is what pot odds means, and the free pot odds calculator puts the two numbers side by side while you play.
next step
The practice: one real decision a day.
You only start recognising board types after you have seen a few hundred. The hand of the day archive holds one hand for every past day where something is genuinely at stake, with the solution alongside it and with what each option costs in big blinds.
questions about the flop
What is a c-bet?
The bet on the flop by the player who raised last before the flop. It is so common that it has its own name, and precisely because of that it gets made too often without thinking.
Do you always have to bet the flop if you raised preflop?
No. On boards that fit the hands you raised with, such as an ace or a king with little else, you can bet often and small. On low connected boards the advantage sits with the other player and checking is better. Always betting makes you readable: then every check you make is automatically weak.
How large should you bet on the flop?
On a dry board small works, roughly a quarter to a third of the pot: little is on its way and your whole range can bet cheaply. On a wet board large works, roughly half to three quarters of the pot, because then everything that still has to grow has to pay for it.
What is the chance your flush comes in?
If you have four cards of one suit on the flop, nine cards are left that finish your hand. The chance that at least one arrives before the river is 34.97 percent. If you wait for the turn and it misses, the chance on the last card is still 19.57 percent.
What is the rule of 2 and 4?
A quick estimate at the table. Count the cards that finish your hand and multiply by four when two cards are still to come, or by two when one is. With nine outs that gives 36 percent against a true 34.97 percent, so for a decision at the table it is accurate enough.
What do you do on the flop against several opponents?
Bet far more carefully. The more people involved, the larger the chance that someone genuinely connected with the board, and the smaller the chance that everyone folds. Against two or more opponents you mostly bet when you have something yourself.
On to what the turn changes, or back to the overview of learning poker.