POKIQ

poker glossary

Bad beat

A bad beat is a hand you lose after getting the money in as the clear favourite, which makes it a story about the cards rather than about a mistake.

The label describes the outcome, not the play. Getting the money in ahead is the whole aim, so a bad beat means the plan worked and the deck did not co-operate, which is a very different thing from a hand you misplayed.

The favourite is rarely as big a favourite as it feels. Aces against kings before the flop win 81.06% of the time across all 1,712,304 boards, so the underdog wins closer to one time in five than one time in fifty.

an example

your cards

board

All the money goes in before the flop with two aces against two kings. The flop brings a king, and you finish with a pair of aces against three kings. Nothing here was played badly, and 18.55% of the time it ends this way.

This example is made up. The real one is in your own hand history: find bad beat in your own hands and see how often it came up and what it cost you.

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