ICM
also called Independent Chip Model
The Independent Chip Model, or ICM, estimates what a tournament stack is worth in prize money by treating each player's share of the chips as their chance of finishing first, then repeating that reasoning for every place that pays.
It exists because tournament chips are not money. You cannot cash them out, and doubling your stack does not double what you expect to be paid, because the prize for first is not twice the prize for second. ICM puts a number on that gap.
The model assumes everyone plays equally well and ignores position and blind level, so it is an estimate rather than a truth. What it gets right is the direction: near the money and at a final table, busting costs more than the same chips gain, and calling ranges should tighten because of it.
an example
your cards
Three players are left with 5,000, 3,000 and 2,000 chips, and the prizes are 500, 300 and 200. The leader holds half the chips, but ICM values that stack at 383.93 rather than 500, while the short stack of 2,000 is worth 288.57 rather than 200. Facing an all in with Ah Kd, that gap is the reason a call which is fine for chips can still be wrong for money.
This example is made up. The real one is in your own hand history: find icm in your own hands and see how often it came up and what it cost you.
related terms
Variance
Variance is the spread of short term results around the long run average, which is why a run of winning or losing sessio ...
All in
A player is all in when they have put their last chip in the pot, which means they cannot bet, raise or fold again in th ...
EV
Expected value, or EV, is the average result of a decision if you could repeat it many times: every outcome multiplied b ...
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Knowing the word is not the same as seeing it.
The full order of play, from the blinds to the showdown.